We are in a bear market. This is evident even after today's rally which took the Nifty to 4850. At some point of time, this bear market will come to an end. We just do not know when it will end, and, at what price levels.
What will be the indications that the end of the bear market is close by?
First, the nifty should start making higher lows, and close above the nearest intermediate top. The intermediate top is 5100.
Second, at least some of the blue chips should exhibit bullish reversal patterns on their charts. This has not yet come about.
Third, there must be a general feeling of disinterest and aversion to the stock market. I think we are close by.
Fourth, the final phase of the bear market is marked by significant declines in the value of blue chips. This occurs because investors who wish to raise money by selling their shares a forced to sell blue chips since there are no buyers for the small cap and mid cap stocks. This position has not come about.
Summary: while I could easily be wrong in my analysis, it appears that the current scenario does not confirm the end of the bear market.