Thursday, June 2, 2011

Sudden change of sentiment in U.S. markets

On Wednesday, the Nifty almost touched 5600, closing at the highest point of the day. Then came the U.S. markets. A sharp and sudden decline in the S&P500 saw almost 2.5% losses in the American bourses. Eurpoe followed suit, as did Japan in early morning trading. So, what happened? And, more important, as our ET-Now anchors ask: what is the way forward?

At least today, thursday, the sharp decline in U.S. did not have a major affect on sentiment in our markets. The Nifty opened almost 60 points lower, then remained above the open, throughout the day. This was surely a sign of strength. If the U.S. markets have a mild recovery in Thursday trading, chances are we will forget about their decline and continue to go our way, which is: a short term uptrend.

I do not see our markets showing strength if there is a second day of declines in the U.S. The upswing in the Nifty is not yet robust. The rally has come about after 32 day of declines.

What about the levels? Please understand that Nifty levels are useful for the trader who determines them. The numbers are neccessary for management of risk. These numbers do NOT imply that the Nifty will do X or Y when it touches these numbers. The numbers mean: I, the trader will do x or y if the Nifty touches these numbers.

Well, after this caveat, my levels are: if the Nifty were to close below 5500, I would assume that the uptrend is in difficulty.


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