Sunday, January 25, 2009

Difficult Times

The CNBC-TV18 Investor Camp at Kolkata on Saturday Janaury 24 was a big success. The large hall was filled up. More important, the people who came were cheerful, smiling and willing to listen. Cheers for Kolkata citizens.

Nifty Watch
Market loses for second consecutive week
The Nifty closed at 2672, the lowest close in 14 weeks. This is not good news. Lower closing levels suggest weakness in the market.
Possible Downside Targets
A trading range (3150 - 2800) breakdown suggests a target of 2450. Since this breakdown has occured in the direction of the primary trend, it is possible that the final target may be lower than 2450, since targets in the primary direction tend to overshoot.
Not the time to invest
The time to invest will come, but this is NOT the time. As the Market searches for a base, it is likely to see, sharp volatile down moves. Fresh investments should be made ONLY after the index shows signs of base bulding. This has not happened yet.
The banking sector has seen the biggest losses in recent days. This was the sector that was outperforming a few weeks back. There is a message here. No sector can be assured of better returns while the bear market rages on. Thus, we cannot say that this or that sector will act better. The sectors that will eventually lead the next bull market will be discovered only after the bear market shows signs of exhaustion.
As I write, the infrastructure sector has been out performing. This sector does suggest a buy strategy, whenever the current decline ends. Such a strategy is only for short term trading. Companies include GMR Infra, GVK Power, JP Assocs, ACC, BHEL, BEL, ........
Summary
Wait patiently for the selling to be over. Somewhere around 2450, we should see the first signs of market exhaustion. On every up move, the Nifty is likely to face resistance. Immediate resistance comes around 2875. Be prepared that there may be much more pain ahead. It is difficult to predict the end of the bear market now.

6 comments:

gurvi said...

Hello Sudharshan ji,
I'm big fan of yours and I regularly watch your blogs.
Can you please comment on these stocks:-
Stock (purchased price)
ALPLAB (21.22)
GUJNRE (56)
TATME (134)
MARCON (104)
GMRINF (96)
GTCIND (146)
EMPDIS (116)
THOCOO (73)
RELIND (2140)
RELCOM (538)

I'm stuck on these stocks and not able to come out of it. I've incurred 50-60% loss on my portfolio.
Can you please help me balance my portfolio.
My email is: ahuja.gurvinder@gmail.com.

Please help me.

Thanks.
Gurvinder

tushki said...

sir pls give sum trends on gold...i had shortsell it at 12000..it had come back to 12700 but again reverted to 14100..pls give me sum one month view on it...

Rahul said...

Dear Sudarshan Sir

It was nice to hear your expert opinion in the CNBC TV -18 camp held in Kolkata .

Could you suggest me the career opportunities available in India after completing the CFTe certification .

Thank you

Regds

Rahul chaudhary

rakesh said...

sir,
when come 2450 nifty for feb expiry?or jan?

S.K.Lohia said...

I read with interest your comments on how Mr.Thainwas spending the public mony to serve his ego.Really it is a evry depressing scenerio.last year our PM Dr. Manmohan Singh had called for resptrain so far the salaries of the Indian CEOs are concerned.No CEO should have a moral right to build a house woth 300miiling US dollars in India as is being happening. But who is going to listen.

Further, regrding your comments on Kolkata investor camp I would like to add me deep admiration and appreciatetion the way you mixed up with the gathering after the Meet was over and patiently responded to their oft repeated querries. It wass to your credit not to get irritated at any point.
Many thanks for the same.- S.K.Lohia

Basudev said...

Dear Sudershanji, Thanks for the good feelings for kolkata citizens

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