Sunday, November 30, 2008

Rally, maybe

Here are my views on the Market, short term & the long term trend.

Short Term
The Market moved in a narrow range on Friday, Nov 28. The narrow range suggests that the Market is undecided on its direction. It will soon come to a decision, and that may well be a decent move. Since the minor trend is up, a breakout above 2780 is likely to be a sign of some more steam in this up move.

Long Term
Bear markets end with a process of base building. This process is NOT visible on the charts. It may well happen, if the Nifty were to spend time in the current trading range , which is between 2500 - 3200.
Since there are no patterns yet that confirm the development of a trading range, we assume that the primary trend remains down. This means, there is the possibility of another down move that could take the Nifty below 2200.

How do you trade ?
The strategy is different for traders and investors.

For investors, the end of the bear market is not visible. Buy only if you cannot resist entering the market. Invest only a small part of your available funds. If you have momentum stocks, switch to blue chips. Remember that the favorites of the last bull market may not be favorites in the next bull market.

For traders, going with the intermediate trend is the best way to trade. As I write this, the intermediate trend is down, but the minor trend is up. Then, look for short term opportunities to buy. Also, on any signs of distribution, go for short selling, or, stay away.

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