More weakness is likely in the market. This anticipation is not only due to earnings downgrades, or falling indirect tax collection.
While these factors do influence the maket, there is some fundamental change taking place the world over. Twenty years ago, the Berlin wall came down, heralding the demise of communism. This changed the world. The credit crisis is leading similar changes in the world economy. It appears that the excesses of crony capitalism will now be corrected through a reversal process - more for the people, less for the billionairs.
The stock market is already adjusting itself to the new era. But not all adjustment can be made in advance. Price earnings will be rerated, many sectors will see significant government ownership, focus will shift on fair deals for the people even at the cost of lower growth. In the long run, this will be beneficial to the markets since what benefits the country will benefit the market. But the adjustment process will be painful. More so because the investment bankers who control the money have ostritch like thinking. They have buried their heads inside a world of their own imagination - refusing to see reality.
My point is: there may be more downside. At some point, the markets will revive. But the gains seen in the 2003 - 2008 bull market were exceptional. We may not see similar gains in the coming years. That's fine, since traders should hope for steady gains rather than volatile earnings.
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► 2011 (200)
- ► November (9)
► October (28)
- Answers to comments oct31-11
- Process of Consolidation Likely
- Nifty Pattern Targets Reached
- Happy Diwali
- Stock Selection (based upon their historical volat...
- M&M Consolidation
- Niftnear ORB Trade
- A dip in an ongoing up trend
- TATA Motors Life Cycle
- Hindalco touches support
- Mystery of the missing trailing stop
- Nifty Live Oct 12-11
- Point and Figure Charts
- Aiming for a better trade
- Long term view of Nifty
- Zen stories for Traders
- Hero Motor Corp at its support level
- NR 7 in Nifty Weekly Chart
- trading with a gap open
- Silver Pushes against Resistance
- An unusual continuation pattern in the Nifty
- Sudden Rally
- Nifty at 4750
- There is a time to be old and a time to be bold
- Afternoon review
- Nifty - Long Term View
- Higher High - Higher Low pattern in CNX IT
- Bear market shows its strength
► September (53)
- The Bear Story
- Nifty in a well defined range
- Morning View Sept 29
- Nifty Options Trade
- Nifty on way to close higher for this F&O settleme...
- Learning Ideas
- Short term trend is up
- Something Better
- A tale of two trades
- Before the Open - Sept 26-11
- Reliance - something better
- Nifty - A long term view
- Adding value to your analysis
- ► 2010 (263)
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▼ 2008 (219)
▼ November (26)
- Weekend Reading, Nov 30.
- Rally, maybe
- This time it may be different
- Market will tell us when it is bottoming out
- Hard Work is the easiest way to success
- New Posts
- This Bear Market may last longer than we imagine
- Is there a rally ?
- Traders enjoy the process of trading
- Bear Market continues, Nifty, Sensex may go below ...
- Choppy Market with down bias
- What should Investors do now ?
- Nifty returns for a 'Test' of earlier lows
- The trend remains down
- A Matter of Trust
- Udayan in Amritsar
- Early Morning Review - Friday 14 Nov
- It is not about earnings downgrades
- Abrupt End to Uptrend
- Has the Bull Market Started ?
- The 2 PM Review
- So much volatility, Market resembles a Casino
- The Market Corrects its up trend
- Smart Rally, but careful as Nifty comes near resis...
- Quite times coming ?
- Surpirse Rate Cut may not add strength to markets
- ▼ November (26)