Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Abrupt End to Uptrend

When the US markets gave away their early morning gains to close lower, we did assume that India will also fall. But today's decline was far more than what other markets were going through.
The Nifty closed at 2938.65, down a whopping 6.66% below yesterday's close (3148.25). The downside momentum is very strong. Any and every adverse news immediately pushes the Nify down.
I assume that the intermediate up trend is complete. We have a pattern of lower highs in the minor trend, with the first high at 3240 and the lower high made yesterday at 3161. This is bearish.

While the uptrend will resume if and when the Nifty closes above 3240, we assume that the primary trend - down will assert itself. Look for a test of 2700 support. If this fails to hold (chances are the support will break) then we are looking at 2000, or even 1600.


B M Kajaria said...

Governments all over the world are giving packages after packages but it is not supporting the market it seems now for sure.

The market falls after initial burst.

How long will it take to make the market decide to change the trend of the market.

we had three to four years of bull market.

Now could you guess the expected time frame of this bear phase

for how much time will this bear market last to change the trend into a bull phase/run

s.k said...

Dear Sir, pls refer to my comments yesterday which were contrarian in nature.But today the same are in line with the way mkts behaved.Trends do not change in day and let's hope the Bear journey resumes

rajivhtc said...

sudarshan ji,

if nifty has chances of going down to 2000 and 1600 , this sounds scary to people like me who built portfolio between 5 to 6000 levels.

what should we do ? sell the portfolio and be in cash and buy again at 2000 or 1600 level ?

warm regards
rajiv malik


taking reference of 21st january,2008 panic bottom and if we make a study of chart pattern before making new low a very last day market have moved 3 to 5% upside which is quite clear from seeing nifty spot chart...if the same pattern follow DEFENITELY market touch new low.....cross d finger

Paavani said...

Dear sir,

The implied volatility spread between nifty put and call options are between 20-25, higher than the spread that existed during october lows.So doesn't it mean that we are going to return to equilibrium thus bottoming out.


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